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☆ Euro, sterling slide versus dollar ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six peers including yen, euro and sterling, held firm, though moves were subdued, up 0.13% to 104.73, as traders awaited the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) reading for August. The release comes just a week before Federal Reserve officials gather to decide on interest rate policy. The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0731 as markets raised their bets on further ECB rate hikes despite recent data showing the decline in euro zone business activity accelerated faster than initially thought last month. A source told Reuters that the ECB expects inflation in the 20-nation euro zone to remain above 3% next year, bolstering the case for a 10th consecutive interest rate increase on Thursday. YEN RETRACES GAINSThe yen fell as traders further digested comments from Japan's top central banker on a possible early exit from its negative interest rate policy.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, BoE, Stephen Gallo, Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank . Sterling, YEN RETRACES, Hiroshige Seko, Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, Joice Alves, Brigid Riley, Alison Williams, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, Federal, ECB, FX, BMO Capital Markets, U.S, CPI, Reuters, Deutsche Bank ., Bank of Japan, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, London, Tokyo

Deutsche Bank's emerging market carry strategy index had its best year on record in the 12 months to May. Reuters GraphicsOVERCROWDING FEARSInvestors, however, are becoming concerned the carry trade might be becoming too popular for its own good. "You have to be worried about some of these more crowded positions," said Stephen Gallo, European head of FX strategy at BMO Capital Markets. "I think that is big enough to offset any carry trade income," said Yujiro Goto, head of FX strategy for Japan at Nomura. A hypothetical $50,000 invested in a short Norwegian crown, long dollar carry trade in the first three weeks of July would have lost $3,000, according to Refinitiv.

Persons: Refinitiv, Kamakshya Trivedi, Goldman Sachs, Stephen Gallo, Gallo, James Athey, Yujiro Goto, Oliver Brennan, Brennan, Robin Winkler, Goldman's Trivedi, Geoff Yu, BNY Mellon, Harry Robertson, Alun John, Ankur, Rae Wee, Bernadette Baum Organizations: LONDON, Bank of America, FX, Deutsche, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, BMO Capital Markets, Nomura, BNP Paribas, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reuters Graphics, Federal, Deutsche Bank, Swiss, Reuters, Korean, BNY, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Japan, European, U.S, America, Asia, London, Singapore

☆ Dollar eases after strong labor market reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, July 6 (Reuters) - The dollar eased after a brief rebound on Thursday as data showing the U.S. labor market remains strong increased chances the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this month. "Take it together with how equity markets have responded, that gives a clear picture of the dollar today. The dollar index , measuring the U.S. currency against six others including the euro and Japan's yen, fell 0.18% to 103.13. "The FX market is taking more of a 'one-dimensional approach' to trading the British disease," said Stephen Gallo, global FX strategist at BMO Capital Markets. The Chinese yuan last traded down slightly at 7.2575 per dollar in the offshore market , a day after falling about 0.4%.

Persons: payrolls, Brian Daingerfield, Lorie Logan, Brad Bechtel, Stephen Gallo, Gallo, Bitcoin, Herbert Lash, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, David Holmes, Mark Potter, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, Reserve, Labor Department, Institute for Supply Management, NatWest Markets, Fed, Dallas, FX, Jefferies, of England, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, Stamford , Connecticut, London, Singapore

☆ Sterling strengthens against dollar as chances of Fed 'skip' rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Sterling was last up 0.2% against the dollar at $1.2467 and flat against the euro at 85.90 pence, close to its strongest in six months. The pound fell by 1% against the dollar in May, its largest monthly slide since February's 2.8% loss, but it's still up 3.1% so far in 2023. Against the euro, sterling gained 2% last month - the most in a month since last July. UK inflation fell to 8.7% in April from a peak of 11.1% in October, while U.S. inflation is down to 4.9%, from 9.1% last June - when UK inflation was at 9.4%. The Fed, meanwhile, took just seven months from that time to raise rates by the same amount and U.S. rates are at 5.25%.

Persons: BoE, Sterling, it's, Stephen Gallo, BoE policymaker Catherine Mann, Mann, Amanda Cooper, Mark Potter Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Nationwide, BMO, Pictet, Thomson Locations: Britain, United States, U.S, Swiss

If it is just a lagged statistical quirk, then the huge disparity in March inflation rates - of some 3-5 percentage points with western peers - should narrow sharply by yearend. With an election due next year, that may prove a big factor in any re-convergence of inflation rates if the cost of that is a much deeper economic downturn that rest. The question about Britain as an inflation outlier re-opens the age-old issue about just how that should be priced into sterling. For much of the past 10 years, G7 inflation rates were largely locked together in either their subdued pre-pandemic state or during the wild price spikes since. If UK inflation turns "idiosyncratic" among its peers during the much-vaunted normalization, then currency markets may need to rethink fundamental long-term assumptions about purchasing power, Gallo reckons.

☆ Analysis: What's behind bitcoin's latest surge?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Tom Wilson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The original and biggest cryptocurrency has been here before, its 15-year history peppered with dramatic price increases and equally vertiginous drops. Driving bitcoin's gains have been its core user base of retail investors, analysts said. In the past, too, dramatic price swings for bitcoin have been closely tied to shifts in monetary policy globally. In 2022, bitcoin plummeted over 65% as higher rates triggered the fall of a major crypto token, precipitating the closure of major hedge funds and crypto lenders. To be sure, some investors say developments to bitcoin's intrinsic characteristics are now capable of supporting its price.

☆ Dollar heads for biggest monthly loss since 2010 ahead of Powell speech
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The dollar eased from a one-week high on Wednesday ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while optimism over a possible loosening in China's COVID restrictions set it on course for its biggest monthly loss since late 2010. But after almost two years of near-relentless acceleration in inflation, markets could welcome any sign that the worst may be over. European assets got a lift on Tuesday after inflation in Spain and a number of major German states cooled. It has lost around 4.3% in November, marking its worst monthly performance since September 2010 , according to Refinitiv data. The offshore yuan gained ground against the dollar, which fell 1% to 7.0802.

[1/2] Banknotes of Chinese yuan and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 29, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File PhotoLONDON/SINGAPORE, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The dollar fell sharply against Japan's yen on Monday as investors focused on rare protests in China, which pushed the yuan to a two-week low. China's onshore yuan finished the domestic session around 0.5% lower at 7.199 per dollar, the lowest close since Nov. 10. The offshore yuan fell to a more than two-week low in Asian trading and was last down 0.28% at 7.214. The Australian dollar , often used as a proxy for the yuan, slid 0.67% to $0.671.

[1/2] Banknotes of Chinese yuan and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 29, 2022. China's onshore yuan finished the domestic session around 0.5% lower at 7.199 per dollar, the lowest close since Nov. 10. The offshore yuan fell to a more than two-week low in Asian trading and was last down 0.1% at 7.201. The Australian dollar , often used as a proxy for the yuan, slid 0.7% to $0.671. China's stringent COVID restrictions have taken a heavy toll on its economy, and authorities have implemented various measures to revive growth.

☆ Sterling weakens as inflation returns to 40-year highs
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

At 0845 GMT, the pound was down 0.4% against the dollar at $1.12750 pence , and down 0.18% versus the euro at 87.220 pence <EURGBP=D3. Wednesday's CPI data showed the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 10.1% in annual terms in September, in a new blow for households grappling with a cost-of-living crisis. The U-turn on the fiscal plans prompted traders to curb their bets on the Bank of England raising interest rates. Truss has so far defied calls for her resignation, though markets are increasingly considering the possibility of her imminent replacement. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Lucy Raitano; Editing by Andrew CawthorneOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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